From Estonia to the Johan Cruyff Arena: the art of gambling and its huge payoffs

The date is the 2nd of August 2022 and Victor Boniface has just signed for Belgian Pro League outfit Union Saint-Gilloise for 6 million euros from Bodo/Glimt. The Nigerian striker was still some years and many obstacles off the success that most football fans are aware of now, as he had just spent a large part of the season in Norway sidelined through an ACL tear. However, as we know Boniface proved to be an effective young striker during his brief spell in the capital of Belgium, providing 7 goals and 7 assists in 31 league matches, and adding a further 6 in the Europa league. Boniface quickly became a name in Belgium and before long he was starting games for Bayer Leverkusen, firing 14 goals and 9 assists to lift the clubs only Bundesliga title. Oh yeah, and helping the team make history by going the whole season unbeaten. But of course this story has already been told countless times since its feat, and the story of a humble Nigerian striker who was languishing in the cold wasteland of Northern Norway is one of inspiration. A script so perfect you would think it was from a film. But no, Victor Boniface is one of the best young talents coming out of Nigeria and indeed the Bundesliga, even if his numbers have dwindled in recent months.

Now, where does this story leave us? Well, in a rather abstract way, history may be repeating itself once again. Union SG, for anyone who is unaware of their meteoric and sudden rise, are a club who were no strangers to the 2nd and 3rd divisions of Belgium, not even being able to entertain a rivalry with cross city foes Anderlecht. But all changed upon their partnership with Premier League side Brighton, who began sending players on loan to develop, a feeder club of sorts. But this investment paid off massively, as Union rose to the Pro League and immediately challenged for the title straight away and have been twice runners up now in the past few seasons, as well as adding a Belgian Cup. In fact, it should be known that Union used to be the most successful team in all of Belgium, having 11 titles to their name, although their last one came all the way back in 1935.

But even more significant to the partnership with Brighton is not just the success they have had on the pitch, but also the ability to have access to one of the best scouting networks in all of world football. Of course, much has been said about Brighton’s ability to reproduce wonderkids time and time again and a similar theme has been happening across the sea. The squad’s transfer strategy has been one of extreme risk. Gambling on failed youth prospects (such as Noah Sadiki), aging players in the lower leagues (such as Christian Burgess) and shopping in leagues that most scouting departments around Europe would see as an utter waste of time – this is the aspect I would like to focus on.

And here we have our main topic for today – Promise David. A man blessed with such a brilliant name you would hope he can keep such promise. And let me tell you, he has. On the 2nd of August 2022, whilst Boniface was joining the club he now stars for, David himself was all the way in Malta, playing for top tier outfit Sirens FC. Now we are talking about an extremely obscure league with an average attendance of just 400. And even stranger is his next career path, moving to Estonian side Kalju FC for a transfer fee of 25 thousand euros. Yes – Malta to Estonia you heard that right. Now, let me ask you, did you even know that people played football in Estonia? And somehow, Union noticed a unknown Nigerian ripping it up and thought to take a chance on him. And by all measurements, I think its safe to say that that risk has paid off massively. 11 goals and 4 assists in 23 league games as well as a goal away to Ajax that almost knocked them out of the Europa League. In total, David has 16 goals in all competition and his recent form has been very productive.

We are talking about a player who was playing for a club with a stadium capacity of 650 less than a year ago. And now he is scoring at the Johan Cruyff Arena with a packed-out crowd of over 50,000. It is truly special to see a Nigerian repeat the successes up top for Union SG as Boniface did and with the form David is in, who’s to say how much further he can go. In a perfect world he gets a big move this summer to complete an unprecedented rise to stardom, but if not it’s still an unbelievable achievement in how he has adapted instantly in every corner of Europe. Malta-Estonia-Belgium and who knows where else. Promise David is a man who has had to work extremely hard with extreme patience and the results are paying off: not just for him, but for Union SG who have once again paid very little to unearth a star.