Farmers? What farmers? Crunching the numbers to find which European league produces the best Premier League players
Farmer’s have talent too
Right now the Premier League is the best football league in the world. I think everyone can agree with this statement. The best managers and most of the best players come to the premier league because it has the most money to offer them out of all the major European leagues. This has led to a competitiveness and overall quality within the league which is constantly increasing and growing harder and harder for other leagues to emulate.
Little old Bournemouth for example were able to spend £50 million on a striker from the legendary Porto FC and recruit a generational centre-back talent from Juventus for less than £20 million and no one really took any notice of it. We are in a place where players would rather move to a Brighton, Aston Villa or Fulham instead of major European clubs in Italy and Germany just because of the chance of playing in the English top division.
However, does that make all the other European leagues rubbish? We know the Prem is the best but are we now in a position where if you play in France, Spain, Italy or Germany - we have to look at your performances through a different lens? Is the Premier League now so far ahead of the rest that if you aren’t doing the business in England, are you really doing the business?
Well no. Let’s not be haste. Every top 5 league is filled with talent from top to bottom. The term ‘farmer’s league’ gets thrown around often in England because a lot of fans believe it to be the case that the French league for example, is filled with players and teams who are of poor quality. I attribute this to mainly ignorance, which is fair because people want to believe that their product is the best. People want to be proud of the Premier League, English football fans love that they are home to the best domestic football league in the world and they should be. But, that doesn’t mean you can completely dismiss any other league which players come from. It’s a futile gesture because there is truly quality everywhere.
An intriguing question
However, I think there is a more interesting discussion to be had around the other top 4 leagues: The Bundesliga (Germany), Serie A (Italy), La Liga (Spain) and Ligue 1 (France). As I said before, premier league teams spend a lot of money on players and a lot of these players they will get from these leagues. Is there a way of finding out or concluding which league out of the 4 is the best to recruit from? If you’re an Aston Villa fan and you see that your club has just spent £45 million on a player from Spain, can you have an idea beforehand if that player will succeed in England?
When looking at the footballers that have come from these respective leagues to the prem in the past few years, which league is able to boast the highest number of players that are able to arrive and adapt to the prem the easiest? Can you actually differentiate between these leagues in terms of the quality of players landing in England or are they all equally as rubbish?
To put it simply: Is there a European league that produces better Premier League footballers? If so, which is the worst league at doing so and which is the worst?
To try and find out the answer to this question, I have made a note of all the major transfer sales from each of the Top 4 European leagues to the Premier League dating back to the 2018/19 season. Taking into account metrics such as transfer fees for the players compared to their transfer value now and how well they were able to adapt to the Premier League. I also tried to see if there was any difference in the positions these players played in. For instance, which league produced the best prem midfielders, or the best centre-backs and so on…
The results I found were surprising and not at all what I expected. After I finished collecting all the data I needed, my idea of a ‘farmer’s league’ has completely flipped around and I am now slightly more dubious about some of the players who look like world-beaters in their respective leagues.
Disclaimers
Quickly, before I get into my results, I need to mention a few things. Firstly, I have tried my best to keep the rankings as objective as possible as I tried to put a large emphasis on the numbers and data, but the rankings are based on MY opinion at the end of the day and there’s no point in me shying away from this. Football isn’t an exact science, there will always be a level of subjectivity to it.
Also, this article isn’t about which league is the best or the worst, that is a completely different topic. This is an article about if the footballers that each league produces are able to adapt and translate their game to the English top flight - the best league in the world. If I was comparing the quality of each league against each other, I would be looking at issues such as team quality, the level of coaching, continental success and other metrics. Finally and most importantly, just because a player doesn’t succeed in the Prem, it does not make them a bad player. There are so many external circumstances that go into how a player adapts to playing in a foreign country, such as family factors, language barriers, club environment, team quality, the coaching and so on and so forth. Angel Di Maria for example, wasn’t successful in England but nobody now is doubting his overall high quality as a footballer. Ademola Lookman is the newest example of this after bad spells for Fulham and Leicester, he is one of the best forwards across Europe. Just because you couldn’t do it in England it doesn’t mean you are a bad player, I am just trying to find out which league has the most players that could in fact, for one reason or another, do it in England.
The results
Finally, we are here. I will now be ranking, from worst to best, the four other major European leagues based on the ability of their players to adapt to English top-flight football and will be providing reasons for why I believe this to be the case.
4. La Liga (Santander) 46 players
€1.327bn spent by English clubs on transfer fees attaining to a current transfer value of €1.175bn. (11.47% loss)
Attacker record of 0.36 g/a per game
Notable Successes
Alexander Isak
Martin Odegaard
Rodri
Mathias Jensen
Marc Cucurella
Notable Failures
Bryan Gil
Andre Gomes
Emerson Royal
Casemiro
Goncalo Guedes
I said that my results were surprising. La Liga is commonly known by most football fans as the second best league in Europe after the prem due to the recent success of many Spanish clubs in both the Europa league and Champions league and renowned strengths of Barcelona and Real Madrid, however often players who move from Spain to England seem to struggle. Of the 46 significant players who have moved from Spain to England since the summer of 2018, I can comfortably say about 10 were able to cement themselves as a consistent, quality starter for an English side in the top division. This is a pretty tough ratio and it’s the reason why Spain lies at the bottom of my rankings.
Now why is this? Well in my opinion it can be attributed to one main reason. Spain, in the footballing world, is a country infamous for its emphasis on technique and tactical prowess. La Liga is a league which has been mainly built around possession and slow build-up which is absolutely fine but its quite different to the Prem in that regard. The Premier League is a league which is infamous around Europe for its physicality and high intensity whilst the technical level has also been on the up ever since Pep arrived in 2016. The league’s are very very different and as a result many players struggle to meet the demands of English football. This is more evident in midfield as Andre Gomes, Pablo Fornals, Saul Niguez, Denis Surez and Guido Rodriguez were all highly regarded in Spain and built largely successful careers there, being important parts of European level teams but when they all moved to England they all looked like they couldn’t handle the pace and intensity. The players who break this mould are often players who have played the majority of their career in Spain for big clubs where you’d presume the tactical and technical education is strong enough to make players be able to succeed in any environment. Rodri, Kovacic, Partey and Odegaard are all examples of this.
Defenders, particularly centre-backs also seem to struggle in this regard with even the most successful centre-half from Spain, Raphael Varane - massively struggled in the league physically, although part of this can be attributed to injuries.
Moving on to the forwards, where interestingly enough a different story is told. La Liga attackers have the best goal and assist ratio in comparison to the other 3 major European leagues with an average of 0.36 goals and assists per game. Attackers such as Alexander Isak, Nicholas Jackson, Rodrigo and Deulofeu were able to translate their game perfectly to English football and whilst other players such as Goncalo Guedes, Bryan Gil, Trincao and Jota all massively struggled in this regard, something must be said of this record. I guess the question is, is this just all a coincidence? Did prem clubs just get lucky with signing elite talents from Spain or is there a deeper reason at play? It’s probably a bit of both but these players all have something big in common.
Physicality. All are either fast or carry a large frame to combat the harsh nature of the Prem. Mix that with the high tactical and technical skills that these players would’ve inherited through playing against rigid and settled defensive structures in Spain under intelligent coaches and you have a recipe for success. This is what all the other players who didn’t live up to expectations seemed to lack. A hint of strength or acceleration to compete physically.
Now obviously there are exceptions to this rule, technicians such as David Silva, Juan Mata and Santi Cazorla were all small in stature but had no problem dominating games in England. But these sorts of players don’t simply grow on trees. They are a rare breed, some of the best talents that Spain has produced in the last 15 years - these are the types players can perform anywhere for any team. Mavericks. The rules don’t apply to them.
Now unless you are a player that fits within this category, it seems that to come from Spain and succeed in England, you must have an air of physicality about you, whether that be through your size, strength or speed. Technique appears to not be enough unless you’re a midfielder where there seems to be a bit more of a grey area - especially if you have arrived from an elite club. Football in Spain is wildly different to that in England. It’s slower and more thought out and I’m not saying this makes it a good/bad league but unfortunately for many of the players who thrive in this environment, doing it in England is a completely different prospect.
3. Serie A (Italy) 53 players
€1.442bn spent by English clubs on transfer fees attaining to a current transfer value of €1.396bn (3.2% loss in value)
Attacker record of 0.29 g/a per game
Notable successes
Dean Hujsen
Christian Romero
Destiny Udogie
Dejan Kulusevski
Joao Cancelo
Notable failures
Gianluca Scamacca
Rasmus Hojlund
Bruno Jordao
Kalidou Koulibaly
Moisse Kean
When Beto is the most successful striker to have come from the Serie A since June 2018, instantly alarm bells should be ringing. A league which arguably has the most impressive and underrated coaches across Europe, the Italian top division really struggles to produce strikers who are able to succeed in England. Patrick Cutrone, Moisse Kean, Joshua Zirkzee, Rasmus Hojlund, Gianluca Scamacca until recently, Beto - all arrived in England for big fees but failed to produce anything on the pitch which warranted these large sums of money. When trying to find a reason as to why this might be the case, I struggled. The Italian league isn’t necessarily an easier league to score in compared to the prem as both leagues average around 2.8 goals a game whilst Italian clubs have always been famed for their defensive prowess and difficulty to score against. Even Zlatan said “the reason it [Serie A] is the most difficult to play in for a striker is because it’s very technical and the philosophy of Italy is not to concede a goal rather than score a goal”. Now you would trust Zlatan’s opinion on a matter like this more than basically anyone’s so if this was the case, surely strikers would come over to England and find it easier to score. But this evidently isn’t the case, in fact the opposite effect occurs.
So what is it then? Are Premier League teams just bad at signing strikers from Italy? This could be a possibility but I think it’s a slightly lazy explanation because some of these strikers looked very promising when in the Serie A. Every other position seems to produce quality players who succeed in England, even wingers seem to find the adjustment much easier. To try find an answer to this question, I looked at Beto, Scamacca and Rasmus Hojlund’s respective tenures in both England and Italy to see what the difference was. In Italy, each of the three strikers is having more touches in the box and taking much higher quality shots in and around the box that are more likely to lead to a goal.
It’s not like they are missing more chances in England, they are just struggling to get any.
I think there might be an aspect of ‘over-coaching’ in Italy for attacking players, particularly strikers. As I said before, the Serie A is home to some of the most promising coaches in world football - Italy always have produced great managers after all. But these coaches are very methodical and very precise. I think of someone like Antonio Conte or Simone Inzaghi in this manner. They have a plan for all aspects of the game, where they want this player to be at what time, when to release the ball to this player and then make a run to create space for another player. When you need to arrive in the box and what type of run you should be making. Everything is more exact and there is little room for improvisation if you’re an attacking player in this regard. Comparatively, there seems to be perhaps a more fluid and individualistic approach to attacking in most other European leagues. It’s so much more meticulous and detailed in Italy. If you’re a striker, you don’t need to think as much - the whole team is built around generating the best possible chances for you to score. All you have to do is be in the right place at the right time to finish it off.
Is this an overgeneralisation? Quite possibly as some teams such as Atalanta or Juventus do play fluid attacking football, but my reasoning does make sense. These strikers go from Italy where they are basically spoon-fed information for them to know where to be to score, to England where there is more impetus on individuality. You might have to improvise more because not every action has been drilled into you and all of a sudden your job as a striker becomes more complicated. I’m not saying there’s a lack of coaching in the prem but in Italy the coaches are much more hands-on and this can come as a detriment to the striker because they aren’t really thinking for themselves.
This could be why Hojlund has taken less shots for Man United than Lisandro Martinez or why Scamacca only scored 3 goals in the Premier League from an xG of 2.5. Or at least, this partly explains the reason.
On the other hand, midfielders from the Serie A seem to be able to benefit from these complicated tactical setups implemented by coaches. There seems to be an air of high game intelligence from these players that allow them to play multiple roles in England to a good level. Nicholas Dominguez, Sasa Lukic, Mikel Damsgaard, Jorginho, Rodrigo Bentancur and Lucas Torreira are all examples of players who have come to England and laid down their mark through their consistency and ability to carry out a manager's wishes to full effect. Whether that be through controlling games, providing a creative spark or taking the sting out of a game when they are needed. Versatile and solid midfielders seem to be the main theme
I notice when looking at these players who have come from Italy to the Premier League. This could be attributed to the tactical education they have received from working under great and detailed coaches in Italy that means their ‘football IQ’ is already significantly developed so when they arrive at a prem club, there is little need to get to terms with the complexity or intensity of the game. They already know what is needed from them. Think about it, how many of the midfielders I mentioned were slow starters when they were bought? Barely any, they were quick to adapt and just maintained that level throughout.
A club can do a lot worse than spending a decent fee on a midfielder from the Serie A and strangely, for what I can only assume is for similar reasons, Serie A full-backs are also able to make the seamless transition to the EPL. Cancelo, Udogie, Tomiyasu, Hickey and Castagne to name a few.
Centre-backs are slightly more split. Some, such as Dean Hujsen, Nikola Milenkovic and Christian Romero are able to easily display their ability for all eyes to see but others such as Kalidou Koulibaly, Lyanco or Radu Dragusin often look like they struggle to come to terms with the pace of the league. To this, I’m not really sure why this could be. Perhaps they are playing in more protective systems in Italy that leave them less exposed and they are asked to do less. I’m not going to lie and try to force an explanation because the sample size of 9 centre-backs to move from the Serie A to the prem since 2018/19 is quite small and doesn’t really allow me to draw any real conclusions from that because half have been great and half haven’t. I guess we will just have to see how recently signed players such as De Ligt, Okoli and Igor fare and then it might become more clear how centre-halfs from the Serie A seem to perform in the Premier League.
2. Bundesliga (Germany) 47 players
€1.432bn spent by English clubs on transfer fees attaining to a current value of €1.476bn in transfer value (3.06% gain in value)
Attacker record of 0.34 g/a per game
Notable successes
Erling Haaland
Matheus Cunha
Josko Gvardiol
Ibrahima Konate
Ryan Gravenberch
Notable failures
Timo Werner
Naby Keita
Niclas Fullkrug
Marc Roca
Jadon Sancho
I think the Bundesliga is the most conflicting league out of the 4 I have researched. Every position seems to be virtually split down the middle in terms of players who have managed to take to the premier league like a duck to water and players who have widely struggled in adapting. That is, every position apart from centre-back. If your team is signing a centre-back from the Bundesliga, you can be pretty confident that the player will be a hit. Robin Koch, Josko Gvardiol, Ibrahima Konate, Chris Richards, Maxim Lacroix, Micky Van De Ven, Caglar Soyuncu, Manuel Akanji. All have been hits. This means that of the 13 major Bundesliga centre-back signings, 8 have been successes. Now this ratio is too high to just be a coincidence, so what is in the air in Germany? I think the answer is pretty clear, its the high lines.
The German culture of football has been built on intense pressing and high risk high reward defending that was perfected by Jurgen Klopp and his Gegenpress style of football. Nearly all German teams consequently will play a high line due to the idea of making the pitch as small as possible in efforts to ‘suffocate’ the opposition in their half. This in turn, makes defenders very vulnerable. One accurate ball over the top and all hell can break loose. This is why there are so many counter-attacking and transition goals in the Bundesliga. So to survive as a centre-back in the Bundesliga and be able to combat these transitional threats, you have to be able to cover a vast period of ground in short time; you must be front-footed and you need to be able to read the game well. Being a centre-back in Germany is defending at its extreme - you are not constantly protected by a solid midfield in front of you and so you have to adapt to your circumstances, if not you will sink.
So if you stand out as a centre half in Germany, chances are you are pretty damn good. Transitioning over to the Premier League, when the lines are not as high and there is more protection in-front of you, will make your life as a centre-back slightly more comfortable in this regard. Most defenders that arrive in England from Germany, are fast, aggressive and they are smart. They have already grown accustomed to the intensity and fast-paced nature of English football because they’ve been moulded by an arguably more challenging environment. Sign a centre-back that looks good in the Bundesliga and chances are you are signing a very good centre-back that will perform just as well in England.
Alternatively, we have the attackers, where the script is almost reversed. Often you will hear fans screaming out ‘Bundesliga tax’ when referring to a forward that looks good in Germany. This refers to the belief that it is much easier to look good as an attacking player when playing in the Bundesliga and if we are basing anything off of the forwards that have landed from the German top division to England, there might be an element of truth behind this phrase. This is because, as I illustrated with the defenders, the style of football in Germany will create a lot of space for attackers. Attackers thrive when they have space to run into and are able to manufacture more chances this way than if they had little room to operate in. Forwards such as Leon Bailey, Brajan Gruda, Christopher Nkunku, Moussa Diaby and Timo Werner are clear examples of players who perform better in transition against less settled defences. That’s a large reason as to why they looked so good in Germany and why their goal and assist numbers were so high. Give fast and direct attackers space and freedom, chances are they will score lots of goals.
However in the Prem, teams don’t play with these crazy high lines. Obviously some do, such as your Brightons and Man City’s but most don’t. Many are happy to sit back in a mid-block or on the edge of the box and make it compact and tight, giving forwards little space to manufacture chances from. So you can see the problem. Players who are best in large areas of space who are used to manufacturing big chances from dangerous transitions, are no longer afforded this space and problems begin to arise. It’s now not as easy and these players begin to struggle to create any output.
Take the alien Erling Haaland away from the rest of these Bundesliga attackers and you will see a goal and assist ratio of 0.28 per game. The lowest of all the 4 leagues. And the reason behind this is clear as day, these attackers thrived when they had space and time to operate in. I’m not saying it's harder or easier to score goals in the Prem but these players who looked great in Germany clearly had strengths that were suited to the Bundesliga style of football and for a forward, this style of football is different to that of England - especially if you are playing for a big team that dominates the ball as most teams are more than happy to sit back against you. It must be reiterated that not all attackers fall under this category. A large proportion of centre-forwards seem to have little problems adapting to life in the Premier League as Haaland, Cunha, Mateta and Marmoush look to all be flourishing in the hardest league in the world.
But when you are watching a winger/wide player in the Bundesliga that looks like they can be something special, ask yourself if their game would be able to translate to the tighter and more restrictive style of the Premier League because recent history will show that many are unable to adjust to this change.
There is less to say about midfielders in comparison. They seem to be able to adapt well to the Premier League, with talents such as Tyler Adams, Endo, Oriel Mangala and Szoboszlai all thriving and I assume this is due mainly to the transitional style of the Bundesliga being physically demanding and having somewhat of a resemblance to the harsh conditions in the middle of the park of English football.
1. Ligue 1 (France) 55 players
€1.445bn spent by English clubs on transfer fees attaining to a current transfer value of €1.763bn (21.98% gain in value)
Attacker record of 0.29 g/a per game
Notable success
William Saliba
Gabriel
Joao Moutinho
Bruno Guimaires
Dango Ouattara
Notable failures
Pepe
Ibrahima Diallo
Morgan Sanson
Jean Michael-Seri
Kaladeen Sulemana
Oh, and it’s not close. Where I was debating whether I should put Serie A or the Bundesliga in the second spot, I had absolutely no doubts about where I would rank the French league upon finishing my research. It blows the other three leagues out of the water in terms of the talent it produces that can adapt to Premier League football.
But should this really be a surprise? For the last 10 years or so, the players France has been able to produce are in my opinion the best in the world, only rivalled by that of England. Their national team is stacked to the brim with talent in every single position and so are their youth teams. It isn’t stopping either with some of the most exciting players coming through right now all belonging to Les Blues. Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki, Desire Doue, Lenny Yoro, Magnes Akliouche and Ayyoub Bouaddi are just some of the recent stars that have captured the world’s attention.
In comparison to the other leagues, Ligue 1 has very little money for a variety of reasons. So how do French teams find a source of revenue? By selling. Most clubs put an extreme amount of effort towards finding and nurturing some of the world’s most interesting and impressive talents so they can sell them off for large fees to European clubs and make a profit. That can be through their prestigious academies or scouring areas with less attention and coverage in order to find some diamonds in the rough, such as regions in Africa or in Scandinavia.
So the fact that France is THE talent hub of Europe coupled with the necessity of developing players in order to survive means that Ligue 1 is the best at producing talent fit for English clubs to snap up. If I was to sit here and name the players that have come out of France and thrived in the Premier League, this article would be a lot longer than it already is so I will name just some of the standouts.
William Saliba, Wesley Fofana, Joachim Andersen, Sven Botman, Ryan Ait-Nouri, Fabinho, Youri Tielemans, Pape Sarr, Amadou Onana, Carlos Baleba, Yoane Wissa, Raphinha. There’s so many more I can pick from but you get the point. When a good French team signs you or chucks you into the first team, unless they are PSG or more recently Marseille, they are typically doing so in order to develop and platform you to the European elite clubs so they can sell you for a hefty fee and make bank.
Another reason why French exports do so well in England is because the leagues are very similar. The French, even more so than the English, are infamous for being powerful and fast athletes with a large stature that helps them dominate games. Think of France’s best ever players, how many of them come under these criteria? Therefore, as most of the footballers playing in Ligue 1 are promoted from the youth ranks due to a lack of financial power, it means the league is one that is physical, fast and extremely competitive. To stand out from the rest in this league you must be a special player that doesn’t shy away from a physical battle.
This makes it easier to adapt to England in contrast to if you were a player coming from Spain for example. Although the talent level in the Premier League is obviously much higher, the core traits of English football are very transferable to France so it’s unsurprising that so many footballers are able to make the jump, or should I say swim, from across the English Channel.
I don’t want to make it sound as if every French export is bound to be a success in the prem. Obviously there are players who are unable to adapt. I think of Rachid Ghezzal or Nicholas Pepe under this category. Attackers in particular are less of a sure fire hit. I think part of the reason behind this is because although the talent of these players is evident to scouts, they are again playing against worse defenders and worse teams in comparison to the Premier League. This means that when they move over, there is a possibility of struggling against these better players. There is also the fact that some of these players, although promising - aren’t fully developed as a footballer yet. Some key traits - traits you need to have to succeed at the highest level, aren’t completely polished yet. These can be things such as decision making, lack of strong foot bias or just tactical education as a whole. As some French clubs are so keen to sell, the first few bids will usually be enough to convince them to part ways with a player that may have needed another season or two to fully blossom into the talent people think they will be. All players need time and patience. If you are young, and this goes for all walks of life, you need to feel comfortable making mistakes so you can learn but unfortunately in the Premier League, where the stakes are so incredibly high all the time, these mistakes will cost you.
Jeremy Doku is someone who is still obviously quite raw. I believe he should’ve had at least a season more to improve as a player at Rennes before being chucked into the deep end of Manchester City. The same can go for someone like Kaladeen Sulemana or Boubacar Soumare. These players still show huge signs of potential but the consistency just isn’t there and I think a huge factor for this is they weren’t given the time to develop fully. After all, you can’t rely completely on your raw physical talents or your quick feet to succeed in England, you need to know how and when to use these skills effectively and once you arrive to the best league in the world, you are expected to just know how.
It’s not an exact science, but…
To finalise, every player that plays in each of these leagues, I have no doubt they are talented. As I said, there is more to a successful transfer than just the talent of a footballer so just because it didn’t work out in England it doesn’t make them any less of a player. Maybe you just joined the wrong club at the wrong time. However, the conditions in these leagues do matter to an extent when you are assessing if a player might be successful in the English top flight or not. I have tried to demonstrate during this article that these conditions can differ from player to player but also that nobody is bound by them.
I’m sure that come the summer, there will be many great footballers who arrive in England that prove me wrong and make me look like a bit of a muppet but I thought it would be interesting to try and see what might factors might make a league more likely to produce better players for the Prem and why there is a sort of science behind it that does somewhat make sense.
But the amazing thing about football is that it is always changing and developing. There is nothing to suggest that this will even be accurate in a few years time, but whilst we wait for these changes to present themselves, this can serve as a useful predictor for the next big signing your club makes from a top European league.
Your team has just paid £45 million for a midfielder from the Spanish league, why not bear this article in mind when you have a guess as to whether they will be a huge success or if they might not live up to expectations.
