‘Too good to go down’: One team from each of the top 5 leagues that are sleepwalking into relegation

Every year we hear the same phrase, the same 5 words that spell out an almost inevitable cure upon a team: too good to go down. I know there is some variation to this, eg: too big to go down, but the general idea is that despite a slow start to the season, in which a team may find themselves hovering around the relegation zone nearing the 3rd international break there is no cause for concern.

 It’s explained by either a hard run of games, unluckiness through injury, referring decisions or last-minute heartbreaks or a change in manager needed. There’s probably more, which I will touch upon, but you get the idea. Today I’m going to go through all the top 5 leagues and pick out 1 (or maybe a few more) team that is beginning to worry me. A team that have pulled out the excuses so far… ‘we’ll pull it back together just make it till Christmas’. Some fans may be worried but others are trusting, maybe too trusting.

I’m not talking about winless Wolves who did just suffer their most heartbreaking loss this season just yesterday afternoon. I’m talking about a team such as Real Sociedad, a team that have all season been waiting to turn good with a manager with a job just about intact, but a team that seem far too good to go down and more importantly, a team with very little media coverage about them outside of Spain.

 You may argue this is because we are only in October, and I like to think I am someone who doesn’t follow the overreaction trend that we have seen seeping into the social media age, but there can be no doubt that all teams have underlying trends about them that pre-date the seasons beginning. That is the worrying thing. Let’s begin!

Premier League: Fulham

I was really stuck between Fulham and Nottingham Forest but I feel like (in part due to the craziness of Evangelos Marinakis) the Trees’ woes have been covered a lot more. Forest had a really unstable summer thanks to their owner, and whilst no one expected them to repeat their dizzying heights I don’t think anyone could have predicted them to be in a relegation battle this early in the season.

I mean West Ham are one of the worst put together teams I have seen, and they put 3 unanswered goals past Forest for their only win of the season. But, enough about that, this section is on Fulham. The thing that is different with Fulham is that they have an established manager.

They are not on their 3rd manager of the season, they had a pretty quiet summer meaning most of the team that aided them to a very comfortable finish of 11th place are still there.

Maybe something should be said that they only signed 2 players on a permanent (with one being a backup goalkeeper) which should’ve put a few alarm bells off with Fulham fans but I think even the most pessimistic of fans could not expect them to be on a run of 4 straight defeats and currently occupying the spot just above the relegation zone. I actually really rate Marco Silva as a manager and I do believe that they will come good, particularly with a rather easy run ahead of them, but if things don’t improve by their home fixture against Manchester City on the 2nd December then I think the board will become a bit restless with him.

I think the most important thing is that they have recently tied down contracts to key players such as Muniz, King and Tete meaning that the club has a future secured, but it is definitely a one to watch.

Ligue 1: Stade Brestois 29

My pick for Ligue 1 was actually going to be Stade Rennais, but I think they are best reserved for an article of their own. So, my pick is going to go to Brest. I have been following Ligue 1 for the better part of my whole life and so I can remember when Brest were small. But if nothing else, Brest prove more than anyone that size doesn’t matter (okay that’s that out of the way).

I think in a way Brest are suffering from the hangovers of their last 2 seasons in the same way as when you go out 2 nights on the bounce and suddenly it begins to hit you all at once on Monday morning. In fact, I think there is a great parallel that not many have connected between Brest and Girona.

Both had fairy tail seasons 2 years ago, both reaching the champions league for the first time ever. Then they both fell off last year in somewhat of a ‘slump season’, although it must be said that Girona really almost did (and maybe even should’ve) get relegated whereas Brest finished a more comfortable 9th. Now, Girona are sitting dead last, and Brest are still nowhere near as dire as that, but I think they are going to really struggle this year and the stats back me up.

For a start, they spent a grand total of 6 million euros on transfers in the summer, indicating that the club are somewhat strapped for cash. I was speaking with a Girona fan the other day and he told me the biggest problem with the club’s rise was buying players who were only there for the Champions League. So, when the club inevitably falls off, suddenly players no longer want to be there, creating a really toxic atmosphere with each other and inevitably the fans.

This summer Brest let go of 18 players (including end of loans) with a transfer fee overall of around 30 million euros. 18 players, all with varying levels of importance, is obviously a lot and it is clear that the board was unwilling to re-invest the departures into new signings. Now maybe this is a smart move, showing that they are not going beyond their means to overachieve, but I worry that this tactic is going to quickly become unsustainable short term due to the lack of depth and quality on the field.

 Brest are struggling to find success on the pitch with just 2 wins all season and with a 0-3 home loss to PSG yesterday it is clear that the fairytale team that went head to head with the Parisian giants are well and truly gone.

Bundesliga: Borussia Monchengladbach

I have to admit, this one was really easy and there is honestly not even an honourable mention. Borussia Monchengladbach (with possibly the best name in European football) are last without a win all season. They have the worst goal difference in the league and 2nd most goals conceded with the least goals scored. All these stats indicate that they are almost guaranteed to go down, even if the season is in its infancy. So why am I choosing the most obvious candidate: well quite honestly because I have heard very little coverage surrounding them.

Borussia Monchengladbach are a massive team, with one of the largest fan bases in Germany average around 50,000 ‘Gladbachers’ a game (I’m 90% sure their fans aren’t called that but I think it works well so I’m sticking with it). Just a few years ago the club reached the champions league round of 16, finishing 2nd in a group with the likes of Real Madrid and Inter.

But to the Gladbachers (I told you I’m sticking with it) this will seem like a very distant memory. The club haven’t finished above 10th place since 2021 and so this looming threat of ‘post-mediocrity’ has creeped up on them, hence why I’m saying that the ‘sleepwalking’ into relegation element for the club is more long term than these other inclusions.

It has been apparent for some time that Borussia haven’t addressed cracks in the squad. Reinvestment of players has been a trend of misses, downgrading on defensive replacements such as Ko Itakura for Kevin Diks or Julian Weigl for Yannik Engelhardt. The biggest problem I have found is structure within the club: it has been said that the club is run ‘like a government agency’ in a state of absolute comfortability with being average. But eventually the averageness stops and usually that is because you have been sleepwalking without any sense of urgency. And the Bundesliga 2 is perhaps the league you least want to get stuck in, a giant’s graveyard.

 Gladbach are not victims of overachievement, arguably like Brest, but instead guilty of unchecked underachievement for which they will most likely pay the price for this year.

Serie A: Fiorentina

Fiorentina have the privilege of being credited for the inspiration for this very article. I think the footballing world is slowly becoming increasingly aware of their situation and it’s honestly so heartbreaking.

 My first ever article on here was about Fiorentina, specifically my admiration for taking on the risk of Moise Kean and how well it had paid off, and that was just last season. Fiorentina are perhaps the unluckiest team in the top 5 leagues of Europe, having reached and lost 2 European finals in a row, and then losing in the semi-finals in extra time last season. Fiorentina haven’t had a lot to cheer about in the last 25 years having to be re-founded at the turn of the century following bankruptcy. Add to the fact that their stadium is quite literally crumbling as well as the tragic loss of club captain David Astori in 2017, this club has been through so much.

And unfortunately it looks like it’s about to get a whole lot worse. The violets are currently in 18th place without a win all season, with the joint worst amount of goals conceded. I think there is a somewhat poetic parallel between the Artemio Franchi stadium and the team that plays there: they are both riddled with old age and a slow crumbling from the inside.

David De Gea, Edin Dzeko, Pablo Mari and Robin Gosens are all recent signings with all of them seeing regular minutes despite all of them being in their mid to late 30s. The weirdest thing for the squad in my opinion is that they have managed to keep their best player, Moise Kean, but realistically many Fiorentina fans expected him to leave this summer because quite simply: there is no project.

If you look at similar teams in terms of size and budget such as Bologna or Atalanta there is a clear plan, and they have that attraction. Despite the size of the fan base and the recent success with their European runs, Fiorentina do not have that same pulling power. I mean it took them 2 seasons just to replace Dusan Vlahovic, a player who left for a record 83-million-euro fee. It just feels like Fiorentina’s story is different: different to all the other clubs I have mentioned. This is a team with a consistent and theoretically sustainable success, reaching back to back Conference league finals, and yet it has suddenly gone very wrong very quickly, and I think if they were to go down this year the club would be probably the least equipped to stay afloat out of all the teams in the list.

 Funnily enough, despite their terrible league form, the club is predictably doing well in their most favourite competition, with 2 wins from 2 and 0 goals conceded but my concern is that if they make it deep into the competition, they may well be too distracted or underprepared with their domestic duties as well. For now though, their one saving grace is that the quality of the bottom half of the table is lacking significantly, with 5 other teams having 1 or no wins to their name.

La liga: Celta Vigo

This one may cause some controversy considering the extremely underwhelming start to the season for Basque giants Real Sociedad. But just hear me out. If you follow Spanish football, you will have been well aware that Sociedad would struggle this year and their coverage, at least domestically has been spelled out. Now Sociedad had a poor season for their standard last year, finishing 11th but they managed to paper over the cracks by reaching the semi final of the Copa Del Rey, only falling to Real Madrid in extra time (thanks to a late winner from Toni Rudiger).

Changing managers in the summer usually indicates a slower than normal start, especially considering Imanol Alguacil had been in charge since 2018 and they replaced him by promoting the manager of Sociedad B. But, as I have laid out, Sociedad’s struggle is less surprising and there seems to be a lot of fan urgency, as well as a broader attention to the topic. However, Celta Vigo are perhaps one of the most fascinating teams in the whole of Europe – dare I say it!

This is a side who made it to Europe for the first time since narrowly missing out on a Europa League final by losing to eventual winners Manchester United in 2017. And much like Fiorentina, they are doing well in the Europa league, overcoming OGC Nice just last week. However, domestically Celta are a mixed bag. They only just won their first game of the season last night, thanks to a late, late goal from Pablo Duran (a player to keep your eye on).

But the strangest thing is that Celta have only lost 2 games this season, a 2-0 loss on the opening day and a 2-1 loss to Elche. If not for a 68th minute strike from John Donald, Celta would have beaten the record for most consecutive 1-1 draws in the history of La Liga, and by some margin, as before this game and since the club have hilariously drawn an astounding 7 games with a 1-1 scoreline. So aside from that Elche game, Celta kept the same scoreline for 7 consecutive games, until they had to break it by their aforementioned first win of the season.

Now in a way, drawing isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but the risk of consistent draws means that there isn’t a lot you can either change; if the manager changes the team and you lose then it’s seen as regressing. But Celta don’t need more draws, and in fact a few losses may actually help them long term.

The risk is like that of Gladbach: technically we are comfortable but, on the pitch, there is something underlying. I have watched a few of Celta’s games this season, including their 1-1 draw to Atletico and it was painfully obvious that they have a major creativity problem. It took the oncoming club legend Iago Aspas, a 38-year-old, to spark any kind of threat to the Atletico goal, despite Atleti being a man down from the 40th minute. Much of this season has been saved by the brilliance of Borja Iglesias who got back-to-back last-minute goals to add to their 1-1 run, but they have been increasingly reliant on him – so much so that without his contributions, Celta would be dead last. Behind even the struggling aforementioned Girona who are on 7 points.

I do believe Celta will improve, considering drawing so many games 1-1 means at least theoretically they are good at keeping the ball out the net, and with a win on the board they will no doubt feel some momentum. But considering they were the final team in the whole division to find their first win of the season, it is a cause for concern and with a lack of fan patience from the stands Celta need to find a run of games. At least you can say they are consistent!

Okay so there are obviously a few caveats to this list. For one, the most glaring one is the fact that I’m writing this on the 27th October and the season is very long, so I am risking myself looking extremely foolish by the end of the season.

Another is the fact that the January transfer window changes the landscape of football for better or for worse depending on which team you ask. Overall, take this article not as gospel, but rather as a guide for who to look out for this year.

 I actually have a fondness for many of these clubs and as football fans we should be aware of how, but maybe most significantly why, these clubs are starting slow because they all indicate the mismanagement either from this summer or further back.

It will be interesting to revisit this come the end of the season so maybe I will make a sequel come April/May time.