PL Preview: Back to reality for Nottingham Forest?

Nottingham Forest have a point to prove to everyone else in the league: That last season wasn’t a fluke. 

By expected points, Forest should’ve finished 14th. A similar predicament occurred at Manchester United after they finished 8th under Erik Ten Hag when they should’ve finished somewhere between 12th - 15th, and we all know what happened to them the following campaign. Forest’s pragmatic, smash and grab approach to the 24/25 campaign did wonders for them as they finished 7th after many people predicted them to go down, but by the business end of the season, all the Premier League teams had worked them out, hence they dropped from 3rd in the league to the European Conference spots. In their last 9 Premier League games Forest won just two, drew two and lost 5 - conceding 10 goals and only scoring 6 in the process. 

A gameplan which relied heavily on superstar campaigns from goalkeeper Matz Sels and striker Chris wood and a large over-performance of xG from other attackers, clouded the fact that Forest only really had one approach to a game: Sit back and hit on the counter. And for a team that was fighting for Champions League places, it proved to be unsustainable.

So now comes the question of how they evolve. Or can they even evolve given the fact that manager Nuno Espirito Santo has been playing a similar brand of football for his whole coaching career? 

Let’s have it right, there’s nothing actually wrong with Forest’s game plan, we’ve seen the results it can wield. But, there’s a certain ceiling that comes with it especially if you don’t have elite players to enforce it. By now, it’s well-known that Forest owner Marinakis is very ambitious and so it’s unlikely he will settle for unattractive football that has Forest anywhere around mid-table. If it’s a slow-ish start for Nuno’s men, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a swift managerial change. You can have pretty football that doesn’t get you the results or you can have bad football that does get you results. The football Forest were playing in the latter stages of their Prem campaign was bad and wasn’t getting results, that can’t continue.

So how do Nottingham Forest ensure they maintain these lofty heights? The first change must be tactically as Nuno evolves Forest into a side that isn’t so heavily reliant on hitting teams on the break or from set-pieces. There needs to be a larger emphasis on scoring from sustained possession and breaking down teams - if this foundation isn’t laid quickly enough then Forest may struggle to improve. The next step is through recruitment - can you buy players that are good enough to play a more possession-based style of football? With the only major signings so far coming in attacking areas, hopefully one or two midfielders are brought in to make them less one-dimensional when they’ve got the ball. Or perhaps Nuno is perfectly happy with the make-up or his midfielders and doesn’t think they need fresh blood (I hope this isn’t the case). 

On a more positive note, Marinakis somehow has managed to tie down star player Morgan-Gibbs-White to a long-term contract. A player who looked to be almost certainly out the door, Forest keeping their club-captain is huge for squad morale and continuity. Other than Elanga, it looks as if all Forest’s star players from last campaign are all going to be staying at the City Ground, something that can’t be overlooked when considering a team’s short-term future. 

Image via @Alwaysinsumstuf on X

The core of Forest’s squad is as strong as any team outside the big 6. Sels, Aina, Murillo, Anderson and Gibbs-White are all European level players with a lot of pedigree - it’s how you build around these guys that will determine future successes. The addition of Igor Jesus to provide competition to Chris Wood looks like a good bit of business and the signing of Dan Ndoye from Bologna is particularly exciting but an Elanga replacement is still needed.

Then comes the exciting prospect of European football, something which hasn’t been seen at the City Ground since the 1980/81 season. Some fans might be slightly frustrated that it’s ‘only the Conference League’ but it’s a trophy that Forest can absolutely win and Nuno proved in his time at Wolves that he’s more than capable of doing the business continentally. But as it stands, is that squad capable of juggling both European and domestic football whilst being competitive in both? One injury to Gibbs-White or Anderson and the midfield suddenly looks extremely light and the same can be said of Murillo and Milenkovic. 

Getting European football is one thing, but maintaining that level for numerous years is a completely different ball-game. A lot of time is left of the transfer window but right now Forest are moving like a team that doesn’t want to consolidate their current position. Signings to bolster the centre-back positions, midfield and full-backs are still necessary and if I’m being really picky, I’d say another addition in attack definitely wouldn’t go a miss. 

You have to build on the foundations you lay, or else what was the point of laying them in the first place? Forest probably won’t go down but currently it’s hard to see them mounting a serious European charge again with the squad they've got under a manager whose tactical versatility still raises questions. 

With there already being some alleged friction between Nuno and Marinakis, I can picture a world where it spills over to the pitch and in 6 months time Forest look unrecognisable to the side that spent the majority of the 24/25 season in the top 4. By all metrics, they were lucky to finish where they did - if you go into the next season expecting to benefit from the same luck, then reality will hit you like a train.

If you want to be a European level team for the foreseeable future, you’ve got to conduct yourselves accordingly off the pitch. If the transfer window shuts and Forest haven’t brought in anyone else, then I don’t see them finishing higher than 12th.

But they proved everyone wrong last season, perhaps they’ll do the same again.